MD 0851 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE MICHIGAN THUMB VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024
Areas affected…the Michigan Thumb vicinity
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 201737Z – 201930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Strong to severe storms capable of isolated damaging wind
and hail are possible this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of storms has recently intensified near the
Thumb region of Michigan. While low-level moisture is relatively
limited, strong heating is occurring downstream of this cluster,
supporting MUCAPE of near or above 1000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is
rather modest, but unidirectional southwesterly flow may support
some organization with this cluster as it moves northeastward
through the afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support
a threat for strong/damaging outflow gusts, while stronger embedded
cells may be capable of producing some hail. In addition, isolated
strong storm development cannot be ruled out later this afternoon to
the southwest of the ongoing cluster, along a trailing surface
boundary.
..Dean/Hart.. 05/20/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DTX…
LAT…LON 43018372 43438380 43808339 43948304 43838268 43328254
42908247 42848318 42918375 43018372
