MD 1154 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024
Areas affected…Far eastern MT and western ND
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 032209Z – 040015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and
continuing into the evening. A few damaging gusts and isolated hail
are possible. A Watch is unlikely.
DISCUSSION…As of 22 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated
thunderstorms had initiated on the eastern edge of a persistent
cloud shield near the MT/ND border. Strong diurnal heating has
allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s
F. While surface moisture has mixed somewhat, low 50s F surface
dewpoints and weak upslope flow are contributing to weak
destabilization. These storms, and additional development may
continue eastward into western ND with a risk for damaging winds
given the relatively high cloud bases. While buoyancy is modest
(~500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) occasional hail will be possible with the
stronger updrafts. Given the somewhat limited buoyancy and
uncertainty on storm coverage, a WW appears unlikely this evening.
..Lyons/Hart.. 06/03/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…BIS…BYZ…GGW…
LAT…LON 48070503 48770475 49030383 49050203 49030127 48680100
48240084 47750082 47020108 46570148 46380200 46120322
46090367 46120395 46400439 48070503
