MD 1163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1163
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0140 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024
Areas affected…central and eastern Kansas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 041840Z – 042115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Storms may continue to evolve into an intensifying
sustained supercell, then upscale growing and organizing
thunderstorm cluster through 3-5 PM CDT. A severe weather watch may
be required within the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION…South of the primary trough within the stronger
westerlies overspreading the northern Great Plains, a perturbation
within weaker westerlies to the lee of the southern Rockies is in
the process of overspreading the western Kansas through Texas
Panhandle vicinity. Just ahead of this feature, a persistent
cluster of developing thunderstorms (now slowly progressing east of
the Russell KS vicinity) has been focused near the northern
periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air
overspreading much of the southern Great Plains, likely aided by
warm advection near the 700 mb level. Beneath this regime,
insolation within a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high
moisture content is becoming moderate to strongly unstable, with
CAPE increasing in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg.
It appears that the storms near Russell are undergoing a period of
significant intensification with increasing inflow of this air now
underway. With the continued eastward progression of the upstream
impulse, further suppression of inhibition associated with elevated
mixed-layer may allow for a substantive further increase and upscale
growth of convection through the 20-22Z time frame.
Although convection is embedded within weak westerly deep-layer mean
flow on the order of 10-20 kt, modest shear due to veering wind
fields with height in lower to mid-levels may be sufficient to
support a sustained intensifying supercell structure with increasing
risk for large hail and some potential for a brief tornado.
Eventually upscale growth may be accompanied by the evolution of a
notable mesoscale convective vortex, strengthening mid-level rear
inflow and increasing potential for strong to severe gusts with
downward mixing to the surface.
..Kerr/Smith.. 06/04/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TOP…ICT…OUN…GID…DDC…
LAT…LON 38110080 38739948 39799774 39629620 37709607 36799804
37150028 38110080
