MD 1237 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FL
Mesoscale Discussion 1237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024
Areas affected…South FL
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 121509Z – 121715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Brief tornadoes and isolated damaging gusts are possible
across south Florida for the next several hours.
DISCUSSION…Recent radar imagery has revealed low-level rotation
within some of the shallow, more cellular convection across southern
FL, particularly near the intersection of Collier, Broward, and
Miami-Dade counties. These showers and thunderstorms are being
initiated by warm-air advection, but are quickly becoming surface
based with the very moist and uncapped airmass across the region.
Buoyancy is modest (i.e. around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE), promoted
by shallow but vertically deep thermodynamic profiles. This buoyancy
is more than sufficient for deep updrafts capable of lightning.
Additionally, the AMX VAD profiles show notable low-level veering,
with 20 to 25 kt of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity sampled recently.
There may also be some ambient vertical vorticity within the
low-level environment, given the presence of storm outflow and
low-level convergence that is occurring, particularly to the south
of the main precipitation shield. As result, there is likely a
mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential across from Mainland
Monroe County northeastward into southern Palm Beach County.
Water-loaded downbursts are also possible across much of south FL.
..Mosier/Goss.. 06/12/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…KEY…TBW…
LAT…LON 25138100 25568138 25868172 26208222 26718212 27158120
27238021 26157992 24998038 25138100
