MD 1332 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TX GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1332
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
Areas affected…parts of the TX Gulf Coast
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 191643Z – 191915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…Sporadic waterspouts may move onshore as a brief tornado
before likely weakening inland. Overall threat may remain relatively
lower-end in the near-term, but will continue to be monitored for a
narrow tornado watch.
DISCUSSION…Several offshore circulations have been noted late this
morning but with a consistent weakening trend as convection has
approached the coast. As of 1635Z, near-term waterspout threat
appears roughly centered from the Galveston to Corpus Christi
vicinity, where 0-1 km shear of 25-35 kts persists in HGX/CRP VWP
data. Visible satellite and radar trends suggest a 30-90 min
relative lull in convection may occur along the coast between the
ongoing band of cells and another band of cells 60-80 nm offshore.
This break may become necessary for some increase in surface-based
destabilization along the coast as modified 12Z CRP/BRO soundings
suggest it remains limited. If this occurs, an increase in brief
tornado potential may be realized this afternoon.
..Grams/Smith.. 06/19/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…HGX…CRP…BRO…
LAT…LON 29209503 28699529 28229636 27279717 26679729 26749770
27959729 28869618 29209503
