MD 1471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024
Areas affected…parts of southwestern and south central Nebraska
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 290651Z – 290845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…An isolated intense supercell may continue to pose a risk
for large hail (up to 2+ inches in diameter) and potentially
damaging wind gusts across and east-southeast of the Lexington
vicinity through 2 to 3 AM CDT. Thereafter, it seems probable that
it will weaken. Trends are being monitored, but a severe weather
watch is not currently anticipated.
DISCUSSION…Forcing for recent intense, isolated supercell
development to the east southeast of North Platte is unclear. It
appears focused within a corridor of higher boundary-layer moisture
content supportive of sizable CAPE up to 2000 J/kg, along baroclinic
zone where low-level warm advection may have become enhanced. Aided
by strong shear, radar data suggests that this cell has been
producing severe hail, and this east-southeastward propagating cell
may eventually pose a risk for locally strong surface gusts if it is
maintained long enough. However, based on the Rapid Refresh, the
developing frontal zone is in the process of surging southward at a
pace that may tend to undercut the storm and contribute to
stabilizing trends within the next couple of hours.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 06/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…GID…LBF…
LAT…LON 40960011 40999960 40869855 40479888 40610038 40760037
40960011
