MD 2294 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EAST TX TO WESTERN LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0625 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Areas affected...parts of east TX to western LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 281225Z - 281430Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Surface-based supercell potential is expected to rapidly
increase in the late morning to midday. A tornado watch will likely
be needed by 14-15Z.
DISCUSSION...The east TX to western LA warm-moist sector
characterized by 66-71 F surface dew points has roughly reached a
TPL to 20 S CRS to IER line as of 12Z. Pervasive cloud coverage will
slow diabatic surface heating after sunrise, but the rich moisture
profile will only need a few degrees of warming to yield a marked
increase in surface-based convection. This will be favorably timed
with strengthening large-scale ascent and flow fields ahead of a
pronounced shortwave trough near central TX. 06Z ECMWF and recent
HRRR guidance suggest scattered to widespread warm-moist sector
thunderstorms will occur by midday. A strengthening kinematic
profile should foster several to numerous supercells. Tornado
potential will become more favorable with eastern extent in TX to
LA, as hodographs enlarge midday into the afternoon.
..Grams/Edwards.. 12/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30789744 31429734 32089652 32599457 32629384 32639289
32189221 31419209 30989212 30759305 30769313 30689438
29799642 30369727 30789744
