MD 2300 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AR AND NORTHWESTERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 2300
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Areas affected...portions of eastern AR and northwestern MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281715Z - 281815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated risk for large (some 2+ in) hail and damaging
gusts may persist for a few hours this morning and early this
afternoon. A more substantial severe threat is expected later today.
DISCUSSION...As of 1710 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
cluster of strong to severe storms (including a more dominant
supercell) ongoing across parts of far eastern AR. Likely elevated
above the surface north of a well-defined baroclinic zone, these
storms have produced a few reports of large hail over the past 2
hours. Keeping with general storm motion to the east/northeast at
30-35 kt, these storms should cross the MS river into northwestern
MS in the next hour. The air mass here is weakly unstable (MLCAPE
~500 J/kg), but also strongly sheared, which should continue to
support at least an isolated risk for severe hail and some damaging
gust potential for a few more hours.
A more substantial severe risk is expected to evolve later this
afternoon as stronger forcing for ascent and linear storms approach
from the west/southwest. Recent HRRR guidance and radar trends over
the ArkLaTex suggests a larger QLCS/bowing line segment may approach
and merge with this convection as the air mass across MS continues
to destabilize. This would favor a greater severe risk, particularly
for damaging gusts and tornadoes this afternoon/evening.
Thus, while there remains an isolated severe risk over the next
couple of hours, a WW is not expected until later this afternoon.
..Lyons/Hart.. 12/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 34499101 33759197 33569202 33409187 33269157 33129105
33259030 33878936 34368952 34698987 34719073 34499101
