MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614… FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 182303Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail can be expected with convection as it spreads east this evening. DISCUSSION...A well-defined short-wave trough is advancing east across NE/KS early this evening. In response to this short wave, a weak surface boundary is serving as the focus for a broken line of robust convection, currently extending from Livingston County MO-Barry County MO-Crawford County AR. This activity is propagating through a modestly buoyant corridor of instability characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated severe winds and marginally severe hail have been reported with these storms, but 0-6km shear is seasonally weak and 500mb flow is on the order of 20-25kt. As a result, gusty winds should be the primary threat with this frontal convection as it propagates toward the eastern edge of ww614. ..Darrow.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36489407 39449427 39449201 36499192 36489407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
