SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts/hail remain possible across the central and northern Plains tonight. ...01z Update... Leading edge of large-scale support is spreading across the High Plains from western SD-NE Panhandle-northeast CO. In response, a broken band of convection has matured along this corridor. Over the next several hours, 500mb speed max should intensify and translate across the central High Plains into the upper Red River region by the end of the period. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a marked increase in LLJ as this speed max/midlevel height falls shift downstream. VAD winds support this with 45kt 1km flow currently noted across central NE into eastern SD. With time low-level warm advection should encourage elevated convection along the cool side of the boundary across the northern Plains. This activity could produce hail as large as 1-1.5 inches in the strongest updrafts. ..Darrow.. 10/05/2025
