SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with hail and perhaps some severe wind gusts remain possible this evening across parts of central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over eastern Canada extending southward into the northeastern US. Trailing this feature, largely zonal mid-level flow is ongoing over the central US, with a surface cold front moving south across the Plains and Midwest. To the west, a weak subtropical wave and jet were noted over part of AZ and NM over the western portions of the stalling cold front. Weak upslope flow was supporting isolated thunderstorms over parts of NM and the southern High Plains this evening. ...Central NM... Weak ascent beneath the western shortwave and subtropical jet has allowed for isolated convection to develop within weak upslope flow along a backdoor cold front over central NM. While buoyancy is limited, (500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE) from the 18z ABQ RAOB, it should remain sufficient to support stronger updrafts for a couple of hours this evening. 35-45 kt of bulk shear will favor some organization with a few supercell structures noted. While lapse rates are not overly steep, shear and buoyancy are favorable for some hail. Isolated severe gusts are also possible where low-level lapse rates are steeper. Convective intensity should gradually wane over the next 1-3 hours as the storms move slowly eastward into a cooler air mass and nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer begins. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2025
