SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A couple of severe storms may occur across the Lower Colorado River Valley vicinity the remainder of this afternoon into the evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Mid-level moisture will continue to advect across northern Mexico and the Southwest through tonight. Modest heating and destabilization should support a couple of stronger storms across NV, northwest AZ and western UT. On the fringes of strong southwesterly flow aloft, transient storm organization is possible with the strongest cells capable of damaging gusts. Otherwise, minor edits were made to the thunder line. See the previous discussion below. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025/ ...Lower Colorado River Valley/southern Great Basin... Height falls/flow aloft will gradually increase late today as the West Coast upper trough amplifies and spreads southeastward toward the Great Basin. Preceding it, rich low-level moisture is present across the Lower Colorado River Valley early today, with this moisture continuing to spread northward. Modest destabilization should occur this afternoon particularly on the western periphery of residual early day precipitation and cloud cover across Arizona into southern Utah. At least weak instability, combined with increasing mid-level flow with the approach of the upper trough/low, may support a potentially severe storm or two including a couple of transient supercells.
