SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms with isolated large hail, damaging wind gusts and potentially a tornado or two will be possible across parts of Texas this evening. ...Southern Plains... On water vapor imagery, a trough is located over the southern Rockies with divergent west-southwesterly flow located over the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous storms are ongoing within a plume of mid-level moisture located from southwest Texas northeastward into north-central Texas. The storms are located along a zone of strong low-level convergence, on the northwestern edge of a moist airmass. Within much of this airmass, the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2500 J/kg range. Over the top of this airmass, the RAP is analyzing a mid-level jet streak from northern Mexico into central Texas, where 500 mb speeds are between 40 and 50 knots. The stronger flow is evident on the 00Z Del Rio sounding which has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. In addition, the sounding has steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This will support supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. The greatest potential for very large hail will be from the western Texas Hill Country westward to eastern parts of the Texas Big Bend. These storms will also be capable of severe wind gusts, and potentially a brief tornado. Further to the northeast into central and north-central Texas, the storms have organized into a line near the western edge of the stronger low-level flow. This could favor severe wind gusts as the primary threat, although large hail will also be possible with the more intense parts of the line. A brief tornado along the leading edge of the line could also occur. The ongoing storms are forecast to move eastward across the remainder of the Texas Hill Country this evening. Although the severe threat should become more isolated later this evening, large hail and severe wind gusts will still be possible within any convection that can remain organized. The severe threat should become more marginal late tonight as the storms move onto the Texas Coastal Plains. ..Broyles.. 10/25/2025
