SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms are possible in parts of South Florida and the central High Plains into the ArkLaTex. Severe weather potential is expected to remain low, however. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low continues to move towards the Mid-Atlantic from the Tennessee Valley region tonight. Modest mid-level flow will remain over parts of the Florida Peninsula, but the strongest convection appears to be moving offshore. While additional storms may develop this evening, the observed, weak mid-level lapse rates from regional 00Z soundings suggest limited potential for severe storms. In the central High Plains, a couple of stronger storms are moving southeastward through eastern Colorado closely tied to the digging upper-level trough. Cold temperatures aloft and strong deep-layer shear could promote small hail production, but a cooling, dry boundary layer should limit buoyancy and potential for larger hail. As the upper-trough digs into the southern Plains into Tuesday morning, a surface low will develop/deepen near the Red River. Mid-level ascent and 850 mb warm advection may promote isolated to widely scattered storms in parts of Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Shear will also be strong here as well. An occasional stronger storm producing small hail is possible, but modest mid-level lapse rates and elevated buoyancy should keep large hail potential low. ..Wendt.. 10/28/2025
