SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon to evening in the Northeast. ...Western OR and northwest CA... A large-scale upper trough will advance inland across the Northwest on Wednesday. Cool mid-level temperatures and ample large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough will support weak buoyancy sufficient for sporadic low-topped thunderstorms. Morning severe potential should be confined to along the OR to far northern CA coast, before expanding into the Willamette Valley by afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear and enlarged hodographs early may yield a few low-end supercells. These will be capable of producing a brief tornado, localized severe gusts, and small to marginally severe hail. Gradually subsiding hodograph curvature through the day and lower surface dew points inland should yield diminishing convective intensity towards sunset and along/east of the Cascades. ...Northeast... Favorable peak heating timing of a vigorously amplifying shortwave trough and attendant surface cyclogenesis may support a damaging wind threat with mainly non-lightning producing showers from the Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. Immediately along the sharpening cold front, steepened lapse rates may foster downward momentum transport of low-level westerlies, that should strengthen to 50-60 kts. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most, likely yielding only sporadic/very isolated thunderstorms amid predominant showers. But given the degree of shear and intensifying large-scale ascent, fast-moving low-topped convection could loosely organize along the front from late afternoon into evening. Despite the likelihood of substantial thermodynamic limitations, this setup warrants a low-probability convective damaging wind highlight. ..Grams.. 11/04/2025
