SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Wed Nov 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong-severe gusts are possible along the western Oregon and far northern California coastal region early this evening. Strong to locally severe gusts may also accompany shallow convection that develops over parts of the Northeast. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a strong upper trough advancing inland along the Pacific Coast. 00z soundings at MFR and SLE exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE within a strongly sheared environment. Latest radar data supports this with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from northern CA into western WA. A few strong-severe gusts remain possible with this convection for the next few hours, then large-scale support will spread into the northern inter mountain region and convection should weaken. Strong 500mb speed max is digging into the upper OH valley early this evening. This feature will increase in excess of 120kt over the next several hours as it translates across western PA and off the southern New England Coast late tonight. Intense 12hr 500mb height falls are spreading across New England and this will encourage strong, shallow frontal convection. Scattered shallow convection has developed along the boundary from southwest PA-southern Hudson Valley. This activity will spread east along the surging cold front. 00z soundings ahead of the boundary do not support lightning, but destabilizing near the wind shift is weakly supportive of updrafts perhaps penetrating levels necessary for lightning. ..Darrow.. 11/06/2025
