SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will pivot northeast across the Southwest and Great Basin toward the central/southern Rockies on Sunday. Moderate to strong deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of this feature, coupled with moistening midlevels and cooling aloft, should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Southwest into the Great Basin vicinity through the afternoon/early evening. Weak instability and a cool boundary layer will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern/central Plains in response to height falls over the Rockies/adjacent High Plains late in the period. Some guidance suggests an elevated thunderstorm or two may develop somewhere from the ArkLaTex into KS within this warm advection regime/increasing low-level jet, though confidence in 10 percent coverage before 12z Monday is low. ..Leitman.. 11/14/2025
