SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Sat Dec 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible, mainly across central Florida during the late afternoon and evening. ...FL Peninsula... Abundant convective development is expected later this morning across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west/east-oriented quasi-stationary front. Downstream cloudiness/rain along/north of the front will support pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across it, from central to north FL. With most guidance indicating potential for an MCV to evolve from the morning convection, within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow regime across the Southeast, it is plausible that convection may strengthen along the baroclinic zone towards peak heating. Weak mid-level lapse rates will remain a key limiting factor to convective intensity. But adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer anticipated across central to south FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. While the 00Z NAM appears to be an aggressive outlier with stronger low-level mass response, expected modest low-level SRH may be sufficient for a brief tornado or two. ..Grams/Thornton.. 12/07/2025
