SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few lightning flashes may occur in western Oregon and Washington tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge will become established east of the Rockies while a de-amplifying upper trough overspreads the northwestern U.S. tomorrow (Monday). Surface high pressure/colder air will prevail east of the MS River, while dry, statically stable air becomes predominant across the Plains into portions of the Interior West. Thunderstorm potential will therefore be limited across most of the U.S. One exception will be portions of the Pacific Northwest, where colder temperatures aloft will accompany the aforementioned de-amplifying upper trough. This will yield scant buoyancy, amid appreciable forcing for ascent, to support a few lightning flashes wherever deep-moist convection can develop. Furthermore, 50+ kt flow, within a few hundred m above ground level, will develop with the passage of the upper trough. If a stronger storm core can materialize, enough downward momentum transport may take place to support a few damaging gusts. However, confidence in this scenario is too low for the introduction of severe probabilities at this time. ..Squitieri.. 12/14/2025
