SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few isolated thunderstorms are possible in the Texas Coastal Plain and the northern Rockies vicinity Wednesday morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible early Thursday morning from the Ozarks to the Lower Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level jet streak and associated mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will amplify as it advances east through the day. A very strong surface low (~985mb) will move from British Columbia to the Upper Midwest through the period. A strong cold front will extend southwest from this surface low. This surface low will begin the day in the vicinity of northern Idaho/eastern Washington into eastern Oregon. It will move quickly southeast through the day. It will move across the Plains Wednesday evening and into the Midwest by early Thursday morning. ...Northern Rockies Vicinity... A line of shallow convection will likely exist along a strong cold front at 12Z Wednesday somewhere across eastern OR/WA into northern Idaho. Forecast soundings show only limited instability, but with additional forcing along the front, some stronger cores within the line may deepen enough for some lightning generation. In addition, a very strong wind profile is present which may result in some gusty winds within this line. Very weak instability is the primary limiting factor for a Marginal Risk. ...Midwest... Moisture will advect northward from the southern Plains and into the Ozarks Wednesday and Wednesday evening. At the very end of the Day 2 period (09-12Z Thu) this moisture is expected to interact with the rapidly advancing cold front. Instability will be weak, but sufficient for storm development along the frontal zone by 12Z Thursday. In addition, a low-level jet will rapidly strengthen Wednesday evening and into early Thursday morning. Isentropic ascent within this low-level jet axis, combined with increasing elevated instability, may be sufficient for isolated storm development between 06Z and 12Z. ..Bentley.. 12/16/2025
