SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected through Sunday morning. ...20Z Update... Water vapor imagery shows the primary upper low within the Upper Midwest. The strongest forcing for ascent should continue through parts of the Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic/New England later this evening into the overnight. Lightning activity has gradually diminished in the Florida Panhandle/Southeast as convection has encountered less buoyant air and mid-level ascent lifts northward. This, coupled with weak low-level flow sampled by the KEVX/KTLH VADs, suggests the threat for severe weather has diminished. Severe probabilities have been removed with this update. ..Wendt.. 01/10/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026/ ...MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle... Radar mosaic late this morning shows an extensive convective band from the SC/GA/NC border southwestward to the MS coast. The airmass immediately ahead of the squall line is seasonably moist with dewpoints ranging from near 70 deg F along the coast to the lower 60s in northeast GA. Relatively weak lapse rates and meager buoyancy were sampled by the 12 UTC FFC (Atlanta, GA) raob. However, the more north-south segments of the squall line are more favorably oriented to strong southwesterly mean flow fields across the region. As a result, the risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two will continue through the early afternoon near the AL-GA border. A lower perceived risk for severe likely exists farther northeast into northern GA/Upstate SC where buoyancy is weaker, and farther southwest into southern AL and the Gulf Coast where the convective line is further displaced from stronger forcing/low-level mass response. A frontal segment pushing east across the OH Valley and Mid South will consolidate with a front segment along the northwest Gulf Coast, and sweep east across the much of the Southeast through tonight and reach the FL Big Bend and Carolina coast by daybreak.
