SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10 percent for Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper ridging will build inland of the Pacific coast, across the Sierra Nevada through the Canadian Rockies and western Prairies, through this period. As this occurs, a series of short wave perturbations emerging from evolving large-scale upstream troughing are forecast to approach the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest, within deep-layer southwesterly flow. Continuing low/mid-level moisture return is likely to support another round of precipitation with an inland migrating baroclinic wave. However, beneath relatively warm mid/upper levels, saturating thermodynamic profiles appear unlikely to become supportive of thunderstorm development. Meanwhile, an inland migrating short wave trough, preceding the building ridge, is forecast to dig across the Great Basin and Rockies, through the south central Great Plains and lower Mississippi Valley by late Thursday night, as a much more prominent short wave trough pivoting southwest of Hudson Bay progresses across the international border into the Upper Midwest. Beneath a confluent regime in the wake of the latter perturbation, it appears that another cold surface ridge will begin building across the international border through the northern Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. In advance of the perturbation emerging from the West, a weak developing lee surface low may be maintained across the Red River and lower Mississippi Valleys, while perhaps another weak wave develops along a remnant preceding frontal zone across the northwestern Gulf Basin. However, models indicate that western Gulf boundary-layer modification and inland moisture return will be quite limited, with little potential for destabilization supportive of an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 01/28/2026
