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MD 2326 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NC...NORTHEASTERN SC...AND SOUTHEAST VA Mesoscale Discussion 2326 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern NC...northeastern SC...and southeast VA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101805Z - 102030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and southeastern VA for a gradual increase in severe-storm potential this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data across portions of eastern NC, northeastern SC, and the coastal waters indicates northward-moving clusters of mainly disorganized storms. This activity is likely being driven by low/midlevel warm advection and coastal convergence amid strong low-level south-southwesterly flow (per MHX/LTX VWP data). Through the afternoon, continued boundary-layer positive theta-e advection should destabilize the […]

MD 2325 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL VIRGINIA Mesoscale Discussion 2325 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central North Carolina into far south-central Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 101736Z - 101930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe risk is evolving over portions of central North Carolina into far south-central Virginia this afternoon. Brief tornadoes and/or damaging gusts are the main concern. DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of storms has been evolving northward along a weak north/south-oriented baroclinic zone draped across parts of central NC during the last couple hours. This storm cluster has shown signs of transient midlevel updraft rotation/supercell characteristics, and recent low-level updraft intensification. While instability is fairly limited, […]

MD 2327 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 720... FOR PARTS OF NORTH FL Mesoscale Discussion 2327 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Areas affected...Parts of north FL Concerning...Tornado Watch 720... Valid 101844Z - 102015Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 720 continues. SUMMARY...Some uptick in the severe threat is possible this afternoon, including the potential for locally damaging wind and a brief tornado or two. DISCUSSION...The northern portion of an extensive QLCS is moving across the northern FL Peninsula early this afternoon. The inland portion of this QLCS has recently remained subsevere, but some diurnal heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates through the afternoon may support an uptick in damaging-wind potential as the line continues to move eastward, especially as a stronger line segment noted west-northwest of Tampa eventually moves onshore. Also, some increase in low-level flow/shear is expected with time, in […]

WW 0721 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 721 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 721 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-037-041-049-051-053-055-061-063-065-069-073- 077-079-083-085-091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-125-127-131-133- 135-137-139-143-145-147-163-177-181-183-185-187-191-195- 102040- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHATHAM CHOWAN CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES […]

WW 721 TORNADO NC VA CW 101830Z - 110100Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...A moist environment and stronger deep-layer/low-level winds will support a long duration (into this evening) of at least isolated severe storm potential, including a risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northwest of Norfolk VA to 20 miles west of Jacksonville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS […]

WW 0720 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WSW CTY TO 20 NW CTY TO 30 S AYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2327 ..SQUITIERI..12/10/23 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 720 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-023-029-041-075-083-125-102040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS COLUMBIA DIXIE GILCHRIST LEVY MARION UNION GMZ765-850-102040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 720 TORNADO FL CW 101615Z - 102200Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Florida Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 1115 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe storms with a damaging wind and tornado risk, at least on an isolated basis, are expected to continue across parts of northern Florida through the afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles north of Cross City FL to 45 miles west southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means […]

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest guidance continues to show low potential for fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0105 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... As the upper-level trough moves off the East Coast, a quasi-zonal flow regime will evolve over most of the CONUS. The strongest upper-level wins should remain over parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Consequently, the surface pressure pattern is expected to remain weak over areas with drier fuels. Fire weather concerns are expected to be minimal across the CONUS on Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough along the East Coast Monday morning will shift east as a deeper northern stream feature moves across New England. Meanwhile, another upper trough will move southeast from the Canadian Prairies and into the upper MS Valley late. At the surface, low pressure will deepen as it moves from Maine into New Brunswick, with southern portions of the front over the Bahamas. The resulting cool and stable air mass behind the cold front will preclude thunderstorm chances across the CONUS. ..Jewell.. 12/10/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Recent surface observations from the southern CA coastal mountains continue to sample 25-40 mph gusts with RH ranging from the single digits to low 20s. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions will persist through the early to mid afternoon hours. Across the southern High Plains, modest surface pressure falls are noted with winds beginning to strengthen to around 15 mph. Latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest areas of elevated conditions are possible, but fuel status remains marginal per recent fuel reports. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough will continue to dig through the Southeast and into part of the Mid-Atlantic […]