SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted midlevel trough will advance eastward from the central Rockies/High Plains to the Mid MS Valley through the period. To the south of this predominant feature, a subtle/low-amplitude impulse will track east-northeastward across the Gulf Coast states -- gradually phasing with the aforementioned trough late in the period. As this phasing occurs, low-level south-southwesterly flow will strengthen beneath a belt of 50-kt midlevel westerly flow in the 06-12Z time frame -- with the strongest low-level mass response focusing over the Florida Panhandle. In the low-levels, an increasingly defined frontal wave will develop eastward along an east/west-oriented marine front draped along the immediate central Gulf Coast -- approaching the western FL Panhandle by around 08-09Z (with varying timing/placement among the latest model guidance). ...Florida Panhandle... As the frontal wave evolves eastward in the vicinity of the FL Panhandle, most guidance depicts middle/upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints overspreading the immediate coast between 08-12Z. Forecast soundings suggest 67-68F dewpoints will yield weak surface-based buoyancy over the coast. Any offshore supercells/organized clusters that can move/develop into this weak (albeit sufficient) surface-based buoyancy amid enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will pose a localized tornado and damaging-wind risk over the immediate coast. Despite a potentially limited spatial/temporal overlap between the surface-based buoyancy and favorable low-level shear, 2-percent tornado and 5-percent wind probabilities are warranted where this overlap should be maximized ahead of the frontal wave. ..Weinman.. 12/01/2025
