SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Wed Dec 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... Downstream of a blocking mid-level high, maintaining near/north of the Aleutians, it still appears that the evolving flow may include a shortwave ridge building inland across British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest during this period. As this occurs, digging short wave troughs farther downstream may reinforce larger-scale mid-level troughing across parts of the northern Great Plains through Great Lakes vicinity. However, in general, models indicate that the persistent cyclonic regime to the east of the Rockies may gradually lose amplitude, with the stronger mid-level height gradient tending to recede northward through the middle Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and Mid Atlantic. In lower levels, a leading surge of colder air to the lee of the Rockies may stall and weaken across the Mid South through south central Great Plains vicinity by late Friday night. In lower latitudes, mid-level heights may rise on the northwestern periphery of Atlantic subtropical ridging, as far north as southern Florida, downstream of weak mid/upper trough progressing across the northern Mexican Plateau through northwestern Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, it appears that gradual Gulf boundary-layer moistening will continue. In the vicinity of a weak surface trough forecast to develop near Texas coastal areas by late Friday night, it is possible that destabilization and forcing for ascent may become conducive to scattered deepening convective development prior to 12Z Saturday. ...Texas coastal areas... Latest guidance, including available forecast soundings from various models, still suggests that the environment may become increasing conducive to convection capable of producing lightning near lower through middle coastal areas late Friday night. Highest probabilities for the initiation of at least a couple of weak thunderstorms may be around 12Z Saturday, just east of the coastal waters. At least for now, thunderstorm probabilities will be maintained at less than 10 percent, but, depending on trends in later model runs, it is possible than minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities may still need to be reintroduced. ..Kerr.. 12/11/2025
