SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorm activity is possible across portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts, as well as South Florida and the Keys this afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Strong midlevel height falls will spread across the Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic during the day1 period as a pronounced upper trough digs across the Great Lakes/OH Valley. This evolution warrants surface pressures rising across the interior CONUS east of the Rockies, ultimately forcing a cold front toward the upper TX/LA Coast by the end of the period. Prior to the frontal passage, weak low-level warm advection will aid some convective threat due in part to the influence of a low-amplitude short-wave trough that will eject across the western Gulf basin. Otherwise, lightning may accompany frontal convection as the wind shift surges into this region. In addition to isolated thunderstorms across the upper TX/LA Coasts, moisture/buoyancy is expected to gradually advance north across the FL Keys into the southern FL Peninsula. Weak disturbance should encourage isolated thunderstorm development across this region as well. In both scenarios, severe threat appears negligible. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 12/13/2025
