SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A powerful upper trough will move from the Plains into the MS Valley on Thursday, taking on a negative tilt late in the period as it moves across the upper OH Valley and lower Great Lakes. Strong cooling aloft will occur with the greatest large-scale ascent across the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will move from Upper MI eastward into southwest Quebec, with a cold front trailing south of the low and reaching the northern Gulf of America overnight. Ahead of the front, a narrow plume of 50s F dewpoints will extend as far north as the OH River, with lower 60s F possible near the ArkLaMiss. Substantial clouds and areas of precipitation will limit heating over most of the area, and SBCAPE will be quite low. However, lift immediately along the cold front should at least result in a low-topped forced line of convection. SBCAPE will be low even south of I-40, despite higher dewpoints as temperatures aloft will be warmer. Despite these mitigating issues, favorable large-scale ascent during the daytime along with at least marginal instability and strong flow off the surface may yield locally strong to damaging gusts with activity along the cold front. ..Jewell.. 12/16/2025
