SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... While strong/gusty winds will continue across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, the threat for organized severe thunderstorms is expected to remain low. ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... A pronounced mid/upper-level trough with very strong low/mid-level flow will continue moving east-northeastward today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Associated surface cold front will likewise develop eastward across these regions through the afternoon, and will clear the Atlantic Coast by this evening. A loosely organized, low-topped convective line has moved east of NJ, and should impact parts of Long Island over the next couple of hours. Due to poor lapse rates aloft and limited diurnal heating with continued cloud cover, minimal instability is forecast to be in place ahead of this line. The threat for strong/gusty winds should continue both with gradient winds within the strong low-level warm advection regime and along/behind the front. But given the poor thermodynamic environment and tendency for any additional convection to remain elevated, the Marginal Risk across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast has been removed with this update. ..Gleason/Hart.. 12/19/2025
