SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly across the Florida Panhandle this morning. The stronger storms will be capable of producing locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Synopsis... A broad midlevel trough will advance eastward from the Ohio Valley into the western Atlantic Ocean through the period. In the low-levels, a frontal-wave low -- initially near the western FL Panhandle -- will move eastward across northern FL while being absorbed into a broad surface trough extending from the Carolinas southwestward into northern FL during the late morning hours. Thereafter, a coastal low will develop northward along the Eastern Seaboard, while a related southward-extending cold front approaches the western FL Peninsula during the afternoon/evening time frame. ...FL Panhandle... Thunderstorms will be ongoing across the FL Panhandle at the start of the period -- within a zone of surface convergence and low-level warm advection preceding the frontal-wave low. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates, upper 60s dewpoints will contribute to surface-based inflow for this activity as it spreads eastward across northern FL through the morning hours. Around 40-50 kt of effective shear and clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will conditionally support a couple transient supercell structures and small line segments. Locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible with the stronger storms that develop. The severe risk will diminish from west to east as surface winds veer and the strongest low-level mass response accompanying the midlevel trough shifts northeastward into the afternoon hours. Farther south, a strong storm or two may approach portions of the western FL Peninsula ahead of the cold front during the late morning/early afternoon hours -- aided by around 40 kt of effective shear and weak surface-based buoyancy. However, this area will be well removed from the deep-layer forcing for ascent, suggesting that storms should be weakening as they approach coastal areas amid the weak buoyancy. ...Outer Banks.. As the coastal low tracks northward along the Eastern Seaboard, the surface-based warm sector should generally remain offshore -- where ample PBL moisture and strong low/deep-layer shear will favor supercells. Depending on the track of the surface low, a couple strong storms may track northward close to the Outer Banks during the morning, though confidence in storms impacting coastal areas is too low to add severe-thunderstorm probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2025
