SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential will increase along the California coast late tonight. Organized severe is not currently forecast. ...CA... Strong short-wave trough is forecast to approach the northern CA coast after 24/06z, then eject inland by sunrise as midlevel speed max intensifies and translates into northern CA. Latest model guidance suggests this feature will induce a surface low that should deepen as it approaches the northern CA/OR coast. This evolution will allow a notable surface front to surge inland toward the end of the period, around 24/12z. Wind profiles are expected to increase markedly ahead of this feature, but pre frontal buoyancy will remain quite limited. Forecast soundings support this with roughly 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE expected just ahead of the front. Given the strength of the wind field there is some concern that a few strong gusts could be noted with deeper convection; however, this activity should develop very late (after 09z), possibly becoming more problematic during the day2 period. At this time will not introduce severe probabilities due to the expected late-period development, but will continue to monitor for possible upgrade. ...South TX... Weak midlevel disturbance is lifting north into deep south TX late this evening. Forecast soundings suggest modest SBCAPE will develop by mid day as this feature progresses north of the international border. Wind fields should remain weak, along with forcing, so the risk of severe is expected to remain low this period. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/23/2025
