SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... A localized threat for severe gusts may develop late tonight near the coast in northern California. ...CA... A potent shortwave trough is forecast to approach the northern CA coast late tonight as an attendant midlevel speed max moves from the eastern Pacific into northern CA. Considerable differences were noted in some of the latest models with the 00z EC/UKMET operational runs considerably weaker with cyclone development than 00-06z runs of the NAM/GFS/Canadian and the 00z HREF mean. Hedging towards a slightly more intense forecast solution and related wind field depictions. This forecast scenario coincides with a surface front surging inland toward the end of the period, around 24/12z. Although pre-frontal buoyancy will remain quite limited (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE), the deeper low-topped convection may yield a severe-wind risk during the 08-12z period near the immediate coast before buoyancy diminishes inland. ...South TX... Weak midlevel disturbance is lifting north into deep south TX late this evening. Forecast soundings suggest modest SBCAPE will develop by mid day as this feature progresses north of the international border. Wind fields should remain weak, along with forcing, so the risk of severe is expected to remain low this period. ..Smith/Weinman.. 12/23/2025
