SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley very early in the period. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley... Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico. A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be over by 15z. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025
