SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 AM CST Sun Dec 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two are possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula late this afternoon and evening. ...Florida Peninsula... Thunderstorms will develop today across the north-central to northeast Gulf along a largely west-east oriented front. Downstream cloudiness/precipitation along and north of the front will support pronounced differential heating across the north-central FL Peninsula. Latest guidance continues to suggest that scattered convection will move onshore late this afternoon/early evening within broadly cyclonic flow aloft over the Southeast. Poor mid-level lapse rates will be a limiting factor to convective intensity (reference 12Z sounding from TBW). But, adequate deep-layer shear will exist for transient mid-level rotation. With a warm boundary layer forecast across central FL, a few strong gusts capable of localized damaging winds are possible. Modest low-level shear/SRH may also be sufficient for a brief tornado or two. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 12/07/2025
