SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1003 AM CST Mon Dec 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A progressive upper pattern will persist today with a pair of shortwave troughs, one currently moving towards the central Appalachians and the other moving towards the Four Corners and central Rockies, continuing eastward/southeastward as another pair of shortwave troughs drop into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, high pressure will continue to shift eastward/southeastward over more of the eastern CONUS while a low, currently in the western Atlantic off the SC coast, progresses northeastward. A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic surface low through central FL, which is the only area across the entire CONUS with any notable low-level moisture. Dewpoints over south FL preceding this front are currently in the low 70s, and mesoanalysis indicates modest buoyancy over the region. Convergence along the front will be modest and much of the large-scale ascent will be displaced north and east of this region, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear is in place, and there is a very-low-probability risk for a damaging gust or two. However, limited updraft depth and/or persistence should mitigate the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 12/08/2025
