SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Wed Feb 04 2026 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10 percent tonight. ...01Z Update... Larger-scale mid-level troughing may take on a bit less of a positive tilt while approaching the southern Atlantic Seaboard later tonight, as the most vigorous embedded short wave perturbation begins to pivot eastward after digging into the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. However, colder mid-level temperatures are forecast to continue to lag to the northwest and west of the associated surface cold front, which may overspread much of northern Florida and the west central peninsula by 12Z Thursday. Forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric moistening and forcing for large-scale ascent along and ahead of the front may contribute to a layer of weak destabilization supportive of heavier showers into and across the Greater Tampa vicinity, and perhaps much of the I-4 corridor, late tonight. However, given relatively warm equilibrium (and likely cloud top) temperatures, the potential for lightning appears low. ..Kerr.. 02/05/2026
