SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida and the Keys today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing extends over much central and eastern CONUS. This troughing features two phased shortwave troughs, one moving southeastward through the Upper Midwest and the other moving through OK and AR. Both of these shortwaves are expected to continue southeastward/eastward throughout the period as the parent upper troughing also shifts gradually eastward. Upper ridging will persist across the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified ridge/trough pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow. Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS, as the progression of the aforementioned shortwaves leads to a reinforcing surge of dry, continental air. The only exception is across south FL, where modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s) remain in place along the southeast coast. A few thunderstorms are possible in this vicinity today, fostered by limited buoyancy amid weak low-level convergence close to a weak surface low. Additionally, low-level moisture and convergence are forecast to increase as the southernmost shortwave trough mentioned earlier progresses across the Gulf. Resulting increase in lift and buoyancy could result in a few isolated thunderstorms along the southwest FL Coast early tomorrow morning. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 01/14/2026
