SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0615 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may affect south Florida this morning. ...South FL... Morning water vapor imagery shows a persistent large upper trough over the eastern states, with a significant shortwave trough digging southeastward over LA/MS. This feature will quickly rotate across the Gulf and approach FL by early afternoon. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the feature could be sufficient for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the moist and marginally unstable airmass along/ahead of a cold front over far southern FL, the Straits, and near-shore waters. This threat will end by early afternoon as the front moves off the east coast. Poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal instability should limit any severe threat. ..Hart/Kerr.. 01/15/2026
