SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing will persist today over the central and eastern CONUS. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough will pivot quickly east-northeastward across the Deep South and Atlantic Seaboard through this evening as a secondary/reinforcing cold front advances southeastward across the remainder of the central Gulf Coast states and FL Peninsula. Low-topped convection ongoing this morning over the east-central Gulf will struggle to attain sufficient height to support charge separation and lightning as it approaches the west-central FL Peninsula (Tampa vicinity), especially given the poor lapse rates and multiple stable layers aloft observed in the 12Z TBW sounding. Generally 60s surface dewpoints are in place this morning ahead of the front across south FL and the Keys. As daytime heating occurs, adequate instability should develop to support isolated thunderstorms over these areas. Low-level flow will veer through the afternoon with the approach of the cold front, and greater thunderstorm potential should eventually focus offshore. With poor lapse rates aloft limiting updraft strength, severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/18/2026
