SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent. ...Discussion... Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America (across and east of the Rockies). While little change in amplitude is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening. As a developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex... It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late Tuesday through Tuesday night. This is likely to mainly emanate from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels. While forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026
