SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast... Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day, taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle, and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley. This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low. Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period (09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so, limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday). ...Northern/Central CA... A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery. One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy should temper the overall severe potential. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026
