SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions. Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy. An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA. ..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026
