SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may occur this evening and tonight across parts of northern California and coastal southwest Oregon. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. ..Dean.. 01/27/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Persistent mid/upper-level troughing over the central/eastern CONUS and cold/offshore low-level trajectories will keep thunderstorm potential very low today, with one possible exception. A mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly eastward over the eastern Pacific today, and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest this evening/tonight. Cool temperatures aloft (around -24 to -28C at 500 mb) should support modest MUCAPE and the potential for isolated lightning flashes with a loosely organized band of convection that is expected to approach the coast of northern CA and southwest OR mainly after 28/00Z. But with limited low-level moisture and overall weak instability, severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
