SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Jan 09 2026 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southeast Texas into the central Gulf states. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are possible through tonight. ...Southern LA northeastward into MS/AL this afternoon... A southerly fetch of fully modified Gulf air (surface dewpoints near 70 deg F) within a weak but persistent warm-air advection regime over the central Gulf Coast will probably yield a continuation of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Some breaks in the stratus will promote additional heating of the moist and weakly unstable airmass. Some weakening of low-level shear has been observed this morning via the Jackson, MS and Hammond, LA WSR-88D VADs, and this trend may continue through the mid afternoon before strengthening later today and into tonight. In the meantime, an isolated threat for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado may continue with a stronger storm or two. ...TX/LA/MS/AL this afternoon into the overnight... Visible-satellite imagery this morning shows an extensive multi-layer shield of clouds across south-central TX northeastward into western LA. Ahead of a larger mid-level trough moving east across the southern Rockies into the southern Plains, a couple of minor disturbances embedded within strong southwesterly flow are forecast to move northeastward from TX into the lower MS Valley. In the low levels, a quasi-stationary front will serve as the northwest delimiter of the moist/unstable sector before gradually moving southward across east TX into the Ark-La-Miss later tonight. The air mass southeast of the front will destabilize this afternoon, leading to eventual scattered thunderstorms with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. This initial activity later this afternoon over TX into LA will gradually shift eastward into LA/MS this evening and MS/AL during the overnight. Ample deep-layer shear will pose a risk a few strong/severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail. Towards the late afternoon over east TX and western LA and especially through the evening from southwest LA into central MS, 700-mb flow (per EC model guidance) is forecast to intensify. This strengthening of the low to mid-level flow and enlarging of the hodographs will probably coincide with the primary period of concern for severe storms. A few supercells capable of a tornado risk will be the main hazard. However, a threat for scattered damaging gusts accompanying other organized storm structures and possibly a hail threat will also continue into the overnight. ..Smith/Halbert.. 01/09/2026
