MD 1061 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 1061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0833 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected…The Edwards Plateau
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 290133Z – 290300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…A few strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across
the Edwards Plateau over the next 1-2 hours.
DISCUSSION…A cluster of thunderstorms has developed near a
localized surface convergence axis this evening. Easterly surface
inflow persists across central and south Texas, which should
continue to aid in updraft maintenance. The current mesoscale
environment remains favorable for thunderstorm organization given
55-60 kt of deep layer shear via SJT VAD profile. The current air
mass is relatively buoyant as well. However, further east CINH
increases into the Hill Country. Confidence is low regarding the
evolution of this cluster, but any of the stronger updrafts may
produce hail near 1-1.75″ in diameter through nightfall.
..Barnes/Smith.. 05/29/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 29970048 30060051 30480055 30769988 30769931 30499895
30269883 29439878 29209901 29389980 29700018 29970048
