MD 1092 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358…359… FOR SOUTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 1092
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0545 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Areas affected…Southeast TX
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358…359…
Valid 311045Z – 311215Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359
continues.
SUMMARY…A strong to isolated severe wind threat should persist
across southeast Texas as a QLCS shifts southeastward towards the
Middle to Upper Texas Gulf Coast.
DISCUSSION…Slowing forward speed to around 35-40 kts, along with
gradually warming cloud tops suggests the arcing QLCS largely
remains strong to marginally severe. Surface gusts of 45-60 mph have
been common along the eastern two-thirds of the QLCS arc. Recent
HRRR runs insist on a potential secondary surge towards the Middle
to Upper TX Gulf Coast before it moves offshore. It is plausible
that this could occur given the presence of a relatively pronounced
MLCAPE gradient from a plume of large buoyancy still over south TX.
But recent observational trends suggest this scenario may becoming
less likely.
..Grams.. 05/31/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…EWX…
LAT…LON 31619571 31619519 31639491 30989436 30489440 29499515
29159597 29119648 29119695 29469780 29929792 30119772
30279703 30589629 31619571
