MD 0112 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
Mesoscale Discussion 0112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024
Areas affected…Northern Arizona
Concerning…Heavy snow
Valid 081648Z – 081945Z
SUMMARY…Heavy snowfall with rates 1-2 inches per hour. Areas of
blowing snow with poor visibility.
DISCUSSION…A cold front currently located across western Arizona
will advance eastward this morning. Ahead of this feature, upslope
snow showers are ongoing with light to moderate snow being reported
in Flagstaff and across the Prescott Valley. Temperatures below 6000
feet are hovering just above freezing just south of the Mogollon
Rim. Ahead of the front, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are in
place around 7-8 C/km. As the front advances eastward, snowfall
rates will increase as frontogenetic forcing increases along with
strong upslope flow along the terrain. Given the lapse rate profile,
some convective enhancement is likely, with heavy snowfall rates
around 1-2 inches per hour at times. Lower elevation locations where
dew points are below 32F may see quick snow levels lower with any
heavier precipitation rates. Given the strong southerly flow gusting
25-30 mph (locally as high as 40 mph), poor visibility is likely,
especially along the cold frontal passage. These conditions will
continue to shift eastward with the cold front, mainly along the
high terrain of the Mogollon Rim, through the afternoon and evening.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FGZ…
LAT…LON 34611154 34831163 34921181 34921192 34671212 34401232
34381256 34701283 35011276 35321268 35411266 35501246
35501211 35461186 35361165 35161140 34981118 34921112
34711102 34481111 34431128 34611154
