MD 0116 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS…SOUTHERN INDIANA…WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0116
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
Areas affected…parts of southern Illinois…southern
Indiana…western and north central Kentucky
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 100757Z – 101000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Localized strong, to occasionally severe, thunderstorm
development may persist another hour or two, before tending to wane
by around 5-7 AM EST.
DISCUSSION…Isolated vigorous thunderstorm development has been
maintained for a couple of hours now, probably supported by lift
associated with enhanced low-level warm advection near a weak
frontal wave and associated 40 kt 850 mb speed maximum propagating
across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois. It is possible
that this has been aided by forcing associated with at least a
couple of speed maxima embedded within broadly anticyclonic flow in
upper-levels. While a modest influx of low-level moisture may have
locally contributed to most unstable CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg,
latest model output suggests that this destabilization may begin to
wane during the next couple of hours, perhaps most notably due to
warming aloft. Until then (through around 10-12Z), sizable
clockwise-curved hodographs within the near-surface inflow layer may
continue to support supercell structures posing a risk for severe
hail and wind.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 02/10/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILN…LMK…IND…PAH…ILX…
LAT…LON 37968888 38788742 39018523 38458473 37928495 37718591
37698672 37738836 37968888
