MD 0117 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0117
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
Areas affected…Parts of central Texas
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 101920Z – 102145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated severe hail may occur with the strongest
thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance remains unlikely in the
short term.
DISCUSSION…Convection across parts of central TX has recently
shown some signs of intensification as a subtle mid-level vorticity
maximum ejects northeastward over the southern Plains within a broad
zone of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft. This activity should tend
to remain elevated this afternoon, being located generally
along/north of a weak boundary evident in 19Z surface observations.
Even though low-level moisture remains limited, modest steepening of
mid-level lapse rates and filtered daytime heating beneath a thick
cirrus deck have allowed around 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to develop
across this region.
Recent VWPs from KEWX/KGRK show weak low-level flow veering and
strengthening with height above 3 km, and especially above 6 to 8
km, where a very strong southwesterly upper-level jet is present per
latest mesoanalysis. Long, nearly straight hodographs through the
cloud-bearing layer, with 40-50 kt effective bulk shear, should
support supercells with associated threat for mainly severe hail
this afternoon. Strong/gusty winds may also occur with any supercell
near the front as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes.
Regardless, large-scale ascent is fairly weak, and overall coverage
of robust thunderstorms remains uncertain. This, coupled with only a
marginally favorable thermodynamic environment, suggests that the
overall severe threat will probably tend to remain fairly isolated
over the next few hours. Therefore, watch issuance is unlikely in
the short term.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/10/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 29449997 30289963 31409872 31329796 30839710 30529697
30109717 29299824 29179886 29449997
