MD 0118 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
Areas affected…Edwards Plateau vicinity
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 110240Z – 110415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Intense thunderstorm development is expected later
tonight. The primary threat is expected to be very large hail,
though there will also be some threat for isolated severe gusts and
possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION…A vigorous mid/upper-level low is moving eastward
across southern NM this evening, with an attendant jet maximum
moving across northern Mexico. A surface boundary has gradually
sagged southward this evening across parts of south-central TX, but
this boundary may tend to stall as a surface low develops along the
front in response to the approaching upper low. Near and north of
the boundary, low-level east-southeasterly flow continues to
transport moisture into parts of the Edwards Plateau, beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings).
Intense thunderstorm development is expected later tonight, as
large-scale ascent attendant to the upper low impinges upon an
increasingly unstable environment, with MUCAPE expected to be in the
1000-1500 J/kg range at the time of initiation. Strong deep-layer
shear will support organized storm structures, including the
potential for supercells and perhaps some upscale growth with time.
With steep midlevel lapse rates and relatively cold temperatures
aloft, any sustained supercells will pose a threat of very large
hail (potentially 2-2.5 inches in diameter).
Storms are generally expected to remain somewhat elevated
along/north of the surface boundary. However, any storm that can be
sustained near the boundary and become surface-based could also pose
a threat of a tornado, given favorable low-level shear/SRH. Any
near-surface-based storm or stronger elevated cluster could also
pose some threat for isolated severe gusts. Watch issuance is likely
prior to 04Z.
..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…EWX…SJT…MAF…
LAT…LON 32020131 32250070 32260000 32219871 31139816 29779842
29429859 29119903 28989977 29080058 29420109 29770142
31000159 32020131
