SPC MD 12

SPC MD 12

MD 0012 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH TX

Mesoscale Discussion 0012
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CST Mon Jan 08 2024

Areas affected…north TX

Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely

Valid 081259Z – 081530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent

SUMMARY…A developing squall line over western north TX will
continue eastward across north TX this morning. The risk for a
strong gust is likely very low.

DISCUSSION…Radar mosaic shows a developing squall line from near
San Angelo northeastward to Wichita Falls. The squall line is
currently projected via linear extrapolation to move into the
western suburbs of the DFW Metroplex around 11am CST (17 UTC).
Surface analysis indicates relatively cool temperatures (near 50 deg
F) over north TX within a strong low-level warm-air advection
regime. The 12 UTC Fort Worth raob showed 500 J/kg MUCAPE with a
cool/stable layer below 850 mb. Additional temperature/moisture
advection will gradually warm/moisten the lowest 0.5 km AGL, but
overcast skies and showers preceding the squall line will limit
heating this morning. As a result, the propensity for surface-based
instability will probably be negated and the squall line will likely
remain elevated. Given this expectation, the risk for strong gusts
will be low in association with the passage of the squall line and a
severe thunderstorm watch will likely not be needed.

..Smith/Guyer.. 01/08/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

ATTN…WFO…FWD…SJT…

LAT…LON 33319861 33559678 33379642 33049634 32599641 32269669
32029897 32359912 32719906 33319861

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